What You Need To Know. About the genesis of Syria's fall.
Ron: Andrei Martyanov provides a reasonable explanation for why the Syrian military collapsed & Syria is now in the grip of terrorists & Israelis. Pray for the population of Syria.
Sunday, December 8, 2024
What You Need To Know.
About the genesis of Syria's fall. And Arab militaries. Sunnis want Sharia and nothing could be done about it. But that also will ensure them staying backward and poor. Most Arab generals upon receiving their stars should immediately wear the sticker--their price. The pattern has been confirmed.
Soviet Military Adviser...
Colonel Anatoly Sergievsky about Arab militaries. In Russian. This is the start of the article--follow the link. And here is conclusion (in Russian).
О действительном положении на фронте ничего не ведали сутками. Например, о бегстве 7-й пд с фронта президент Сирии Хафез Асад узнал лишь от советских советников. Ввод в сражение 1-й тд 7 октября проходил без всякого руководства со стороны высшего сирийского командования. Аналогичное положение было при контрударе 16 октября ирако-иорданских войск. Плохо было организовано управление и в войсковом звене. Командные пункты располагались на большом удалении от переднего края: батальонов - до 6 км, бригад - 8-10 км, дивизий - до 20 км. С началом наступления командиры дивизий и бригад остались на своих защищенных пунктах управления. За полем боя и действиями войск из старших начальников никто не наблюдал. Средства радиосвязи во многих случаях командирами и штабами из-за радиобоязни не использовались или были брошены на поле боя. В звене дивизия-батальон командный состав, не зная обстановки, просто уходил от своих радиостанций, чтобы не иметь неприятного разговора с вышестоящими командирами. В 1-й тд командир дивизии якобы в целях радиомаскировки вообще запретил радиосвязь. В ходе боев со стороны офицеров отмечалось много случаев неисполнительности. Некоторые командиры бригад под различными предлогами вообще отказывались выполнять задачи (командир 50-й мбр), самовольно принимали решения на отход, никому не докладывая об этом и не ставя в известность соседей.
Translation: Nothing was known about the actual situation at the front for days. For example, Syrian President Hafez al-Assad learned about the flight of the 7th Infantry Division from the front only from Soviet advisers. The introduction of the 1st Tank Division into battle on October 7 took place without any leadership from the Syrian high command. A similar situation occurred during the counterattack of the Iraqi-Jordanian troops on October 16. Command and control was also poorly organized at the troop level. Command posts were located at a great distance from the front line: battalions - up to 6 km, brigades - 8-10 km, divisions - up to 20 km. With the beginning of the offensive, the division and brigade commanders remained at their protected command posts. No senior commanders observed the battlefield or the actions of the troops. In many cases, radio communications were not used by commanders and headquarters due to radiophobia or were abandoned on the battlefield. In the division-battalion link, the command staff, not knowing the situation, simply walked away from their radio stations in order to avoid an unpleasant conversation with their superior commanders. In the 1st TD, the division commander, allegedly for the purpose of radio camouflage, banned radio communications altogether. During the battles, there were many cases of non-compliance on the part of officers. Some brigade commanders, under various pretexts, refused to carry out tasks at all (the commander of the 50th MBR), and arbitrarily made decisions to retreat, without reporting this to anyone or informing their neighbors.
See the pattern? 1973, 2024--nothing changed and it cannot be changed.
Posted by smoothiex12 at 11:10 AM 50 Comments
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Labels: 1973, Anatoly Sergievsky, Arab militaries., Syria
Assad and Family Are in Moscow.
Moscow confirms.
Бывший президент Сирии Башар Асад вместе с семьей находится в Москве, где ему предоставлено убежище по гуманитарным соображениям, сообщил источник в Кремле.
Translation: Former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his family are in Moscow, where he has been granted asylum for humanitarian reasons, a Kremlin source said.
Posted by smoothiex12 at 11:00 AM 56 Comments
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Labels: Assad, asylum., family, Moscow
For Those Who "Grieve".
I don't like Alexandr Kotz in a slightest--I know how he covered SMO--but when the man is right, he is right. It is in Russian (Google Translate will help).
Мне не жаль сирийские власти. Я слишком хорошо помню, как в далеком 2012 году нас, российских журналистов, «щемили» на погранконтроле, выворачивая наизнанку весь багаж, изымали камеры и фотоаппараты. Потом шпыняли по кабинетам всевозможных министерств, прогоняя через нерешаемый ребус с получением различных бумажек-разрешений. А западных репортеров едва ли не носили на руках, пытаясь продемонстрировать либеральность взглядов на фоне восстания в Дераа. Это не мои личные обиды. В этом в том числе выражалось отношение к моей стране. Снисходительное, с закатанными глазами и брезгливо приподнятой верхней губой.
Потом мы спасли Сирию в 2013 году, если кто не помнит. Обама собирался накрыть ее ковровыми бомбардировками после химической провокации в Восточной Гуте. И усилиями российской дипломатии катастрофу удалось предотвратить. Отсрочить, как теперь выясняется. В 2015-м мы снова пришли на помощь Асаду, когда террористы были в пяти километрах от центра Дамаска. И как смогли, залатали это лоскутное одеяло, состоявшее из различных религиозных, социальных, запрещенных и не очень кусочков, между которыми росли противоречия. Появившееся было уважение в глазах «садыков» откатилось назад пусть и не до брезгливости, но до вынужденного терпения неизбежного. Как к кашлю при ковиде.
Translation: I do not feel sorry for the Syrian authorities. I remember too well how, back in 2012, we, Russian journalists, were “squeezed” at border control, with all our luggage turned inside out, and our cameras and photo cameras confiscated. Then they hounded us around the offices of various ministries, putting us through an unsolvable puzzle of obtaining various papers and permits. And Western reporters were practically carried around in their arms, trying to demonstrate their liberal views against the backdrop of the uprising in Daraa. These are not my personal grievances. This, among other things, was an expression of their attitude towards my country. Condescending, with rolled eyes and a disdainfully raised upper lip. Then we saved Syria in 2013, if anyone doesn’t remember. Obama was going to cover it with carpet bombing after the chemical provocation in Eastern Ghouta. And thanks to the efforts of Russian diplomacy, the catastrophe was averted. Postponed, as it turns out now. In 2015, we came to Assad's aid again when the terrorists were five kilometers from the center of Damascus. And as best we could, we patched up this patchwork quilt, consisting of various religious, social, forbidden and not so forbidden pieces, between which contradictions grew. The respect that had appeared in the eyes of the "Sadiks" rolled back, if not to disgust, then to the forced patience of the inevitable. Like a cough with Covid.
Pay attention to how he describes SAA generals bestowing themselves with new stars and privileges for the victory which was won by Russians and Iranians primarily. Make your own conclusions, those who still retain a modicum of a common sense. Arab military, yet again, performed what is expected of them--decomposed and ran. I speak about it in my today's video.
Posted by smoothiex12 at 10:55 AM 22 Comments
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Labels: Alexandr Kotz, Arab Militaries, SAA, Syria
Saturday, December 7, 2024
Well, Arab Militaries...
... I want to remind AGAIN about the article by Colonel Atkine--Why Arabs Lose Wars. If one disregards the nonsense Atkine writes about Soviet Armed Forces, of which he has about zero knowledge, his delving into the nature of Arab militaries is valid, as are testimonies of a majority of Soviet/Russian military advisers who trained, as an example, Iraqi and Syrian militaries. I knew a few of them really well.
Allegedly, these are "opposition" forces already in Presidential Palace in Damascus.
Now, classic Arab apologetics starts with blaming everybody but themselves. Here is a classic Middle Eastern Army--selling itself to the highest bidder.
The Syrian Army command announced on Sunday that President Bashar Assad’s 24-year rule has come to an end, according to a Syrian officer who spoke to Reuters. The announcement follows a rapid offensive by jihadist forces in the capital. The jihadists claim that Damascus is “now free of Assad” and are expected to make their first public statement via state TV, Reuters reports, citing two anti-government sources. In response to the political uncertainty, Prime Minister Mohammad al-Jalali stated that he is “ready to cooperate with any leadership chosen by the people,” as quoted by Al Jazeera. He added that he remains at home and is inclined to support the continuity of government.
The question always is how much is worth Arab military high ranking officer(s) for betrayal. Evidently, as early as the last week Iran (if to believe WSJ) told official Damascus about reducing its military aid and started removing command of some of its forces from Syria. Syrian Girl reports that SAA "was ordered not to fight". I don't doubt for a second that there was a high level military-intel treason, but let's also face the fact that if not for Russian and Iranian forces in Syria it wouldn't have survived by now. In other words--it takes outside forces to prop up most of regional militaries.
Now about hysterics re: Russia, especially by all kinds of "concerned citizens". If to believe reports about Assad family flying to Moscow (big if, though)--it becomes clear that Russia knew what was afoot. Fast advancement of the HTS forces and cowardly abandonment of Syrian towns and cities by SAA was not due to HTS military prowess but due to SAA ceasing to exist as a viable fighting force due to corruption, military incompetence, cowardice and treason--all classic traits of such militaries. But as I repeat ad nauseam--Russian bases in Syria ARE NOT there to "defend" Syria, let alone fight the war for Syrians... again. If Syrians do not want to fight for their country, neither does Russia, nor does Iran, as it should be. Is it bad? For Syria it certainly is, for Russia--let's wait and see. Because Syria for Russia is not a priority.
Were Russian lives lost in Syria in vain? Absolutely, as far as the Syrian statehood is concerned--it is an undeniable fact and it merely reinforces a well established pattern of backstabbing being one of the major traits of the region. So, we have to wait and see how it plays out for Russia, but it is clear that Russia made a decision not to support official Damascus anymore, but Russia can reinforce her bases in the region if need be. The situation is very fluid and we need to be patient and very cautious in making conclusions before clearer picture emerges.
Posted by smoothiex12 at 11:49 PM 752 Comments
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Labels: Assad, bases, Damascus, Russia, SAA
Sure...
As AP reports.
Jihadist groups in Syria have reached the suburbs of Damascus as part of a rapidly progressing offensive that has overrun some of Syria’s largest cities, the Associated Press wrote on Saturday, quoting opposition leaders and an Islamist commander. The Syrian presidency has refuted rumors that President Bashar Assad has left Damascus, adding that false reports of his departure from the Syrian capital have been spread by foreign outlets in an attempt to “mislead and influence” the country’s population.
This "source", should not obscure the fact that SAA performed dismally and, as is always the case with Arab militaries, has its general staff overwhelmed with panic. It is now very clear, that regular Arab armies, while having some competent and courageous people, cannot fight unless propped up by external force, such as Iranians and Russians. SAA left Palmira, or rather ran away from it. You can bet your ass on Russia's support for Damascus:
We are absolutely convinced of the inadmissibility of using terrorists like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham to achieve geopolitical goals, as it is now being done by orchestrating the offensive in the Idlib de-escalation zone,” Lavrov stated on Sunday, after meeting with the Iranian and Turkish foreign ministers in Qatar.The foreign ministers of Türkiye, Iran, and Russia met in Doha on Saturday to discuss the lightning rebel advance in Syria.The militant group Hayat Tahrir-al-Sham (HTS), an offshoot of Jabhat al-Nusra, along with its allies, launched a surprise offensive against Syrian government forces last week, capturing large swaths of territory, including parts of Aleppo and the city of Hama. The Syrian military has redeployed forces to threatened regions, with the support of Russian warplanes.
The cultural problem with Arab militaries remains. Same goes for Western militaries which are good fighting wars only on paper or against said incompetent Arab militaries. But, as Larry notes astutely:
Damn Bernard at Moon of Alabama (just kidding)! He took the keyboard right out of my hand with his latest piece, U.S. Has Stopped Ukrainian ATACMS Strikes On Russia. That’s what I intended to write tonight. Instead of me regurgitating his piece, go read it. We learned yesterday that Russia’s top general, Gerasimov, called US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Charlie Brown, on November 27th. We do not know what was said in that conversation, but we do know that no more ATACMs, Storm Shadows or SCALPS have been launched into Russian territory since that conversation. You don’t need an advanced degree in logic to surmise that Russia warned the United States (and told them to pass it on to its NATO partners) that the Russian Oreshnik missile was a warning and that Russia would hit NATO bases if further attacks occurred. Guess what? Since that phone call, no more missile launches into Russia. Instead, Ukraine is still sending drones that are being routinely shot down. This means that the US and NATO are no longer providing attack coordinates to the Ukrainians. In this game of stare down, the West blinked.